| 基于负荷分解和实时气象因素的短期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘旭,罗滇生,姚建刚,贺辉,张凯,刘霏.基于负荷分解和实时气象因素的短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2009,33(12):110-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘旭 罗滇生 姚建刚 贺辉 张凯 刘霏 |
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| 作者单位： | 刘旭,罗滇生,姚建刚,LIU Xu,LUO Dian-sheng,YAO Jian-gang(湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南省长沙市,410082);贺辉,张凯,HE Hui,ZHANG Kai(湖南省电力调度通信中心);刘霏,LIU Fei(衡阳市电业局,湖南省,衡阳市,421001)
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| 基金项目： | 电子信息产业发展基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据地区气象与负荷的相关关系，从总负荷中分解出对气象不敏感的基础负荷和受气象因素影响的气象敏感负荷，并分别采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和基于LMBP (Levernberg–Marquardt back propagation)算法的多层前馈神经网络对二者进行建模预测。在对实时气象因素、日特征气象因素与气象敏感负荷相关性分析的基础上，重点把握某些气象因素与气象敏感负荷之间的联系。通过合理选择神经网络的输入变量，实现了基于实时气象因素的短期负荷预测。实际应用证明了所提出方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 短期负荷预测 实时气象因素 负荷分解 气象敏感负荷 神经网络 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008-11-27 |
Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Load Decomposition and Hourly Weather Factors |
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| LIU Xu,LUO Dian-sheng,YAO Jian-gang,HE Hui,ZHANG Kai,LIU Fei.Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Load Decomposition and Hourly Weather Factors[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(12):110-117. |
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| Authors: | LIU Xu LUO Dian-sheng YAO Jian-gang HE Hui ZHANG Kai LIU Fei |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Electrical and Information Engineering;Hunan University;Changsha 410082;Hunan Province;China;2.Hunan Electric Power Dispatch and Communication Center;Changsha 410007;3.Hengyang Power Supply Bureau;Hengyang 421001;China |
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| Abstract: | According to the correlation of area weather and power load,the basic load that is not sensitive to weather and weather-sensitive load influenced by weather factors are decomposed from total load,and these two decomposed parts are modelled and forecasted by GM(1,1) model and multi-layer feed-forward neural network based on Levernberg-Marquardt back propagation(LMBP) algorithm respectively.On the basis of analyzing the correlation among hourly weather factors and daily characteristic meteorological factors w... |
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| Keywords: | short-term load forecasting hourly weather factors load decomposition weather-sensitive load neural network |
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