一种中长期日负荷曲线预测的新方法-双向夹逼法

作者提出了一种预测中长期日负荷曲线的新方法--双向夹逼法,它适用于中长期电网规划和电力市场运营问题.该方法基于相似性原理和双向逼近思想,将预测问题转换为线性规划问题,使问题变得简单和容易求解.提出的方法已应用于三峡电力系统运行规划的大量计算中.实践表明,该方法快速、有效,且有较高的精度.

A NOVEL METHOD OF MIDDLE AND LONG TERM FORECASTING FOR DAILY LOAD CURVE-APPROACHING ALGORITHM IN TWO DIRECTIONS

A new method of middle and long term forecasting for daily load pattern, i.e., the approaching algorithm in two directions, is presented which is applicable in the middle and long term power system planning and electricity market operation. Based on the principle of analogy and the idea of approaching predicted daily load curve in two directions, the forecasting problem is transformed into a linear programming problem, thus it can be solved easily. This method has been put into use in the middle and long term operation planning of the Three Gorges Power System. The practical results show that the presented method is fast, effective and more accurate than traditional load forecasting methods.