一种基于灰色系统理论的中长期需电量预测模型

深入研究了基于灰色系统理论的中长期需电量预测方法，剖析了灰色预测ＧＭ（１，１）模型应用的局限性及其改进方法，根据电力系统中长期需电量预测的特点，将国民经济发展对年用电量的影响加到预测模型中，提出一种基于灰色系统理论的中长期需电量预测方法，并用此方法对山东省多年来的用电量进行试验和对未来十几年的用电量进行预测，结果表明：模型精度较高，预测误差较小，预测结果与国家电力公司的宏观预测值基本吻合。

MIDDLE AND LONG TERM POWER CONSUMPTION FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON GREY SYSTEM THEORY

In order to forecast the middle and long term power consumption different methods have been put forward, in which the forecasting method based on grey system theory is wildly applied in recent years due to its outstanding advantage. In this paper the limitation of formerly middle and long term power consumption forecasting method based on grey system theory is analysed. According to the feature of middle and long term power consumption forecasting an improved method is put forward. The calculation shows that the forecasting by this method is more accurate.