| 电力系统大停电的自组织临界现象 |
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| 引用本文： | 曹一家,江全元,丁理杰.电力系统大停电的自组织临界现象[J].电网技术,2005,29(15):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 曹一家 江全元 丁理杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学,电气工程学院,浙江省,杭州市,310027 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用复杂系统理论,通过分析美国电网大停电事故的部分数据,深入探讨了电力系统大停电规模与频率之间的幂律关系以及大停电规模分布的分形分维特征,提出了大停电现象可以用自组织临界性的概念来加以解释的观点.结合Hurst指数,进一步说明了存在着对电力系统大停电进行预测的可能.
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 大停电 复杂系统 自组织临界性 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3673(2005)15-0001-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 04 30 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年4月30日 |
SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY PHENOMENON FOR POWER SYSTEM BLACKOUTS |
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| CAO Yi-jia,JIANG Quan-yuan,DING Li-jie.SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY PHENOMENON FOR POWER SYSTEM BLACKOUTS[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(15):1-5. |
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| Authors: | CAO Yi-jia JIANG Quan-yuan DING Li-jie |
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| Abstract: | Applying complex system theory and by means of analyzing partial data of power system blackouts in America, the power law relation between the scale of power system blackout and system frequency and the fractal and fractol features of the distribution of power system blackout scale are investigated in detail. The viewpoint that blackout phenomena can be explained by the concept of self-organized criticality is proposed. Based on the Hurst exponent, it is pointed out that power system blackouts are predictable. |
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| Keywords: | Power system Blackouts Complex system Self-organized criticality |
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