基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估

提出了运行可靠性的概念及其评估算法,评估电力系统在实时运行状态下的安全可靠性水平.该算法分析了线路潮流、母线电压、系统频率等实时运行条件对元件停运概率的影响,建立了基于实时运行条件的元件可靠性模型,并考虑了机组的运行方式、负荷的实时变化、网络结构的变化等实时运行条件对故障后果分析的影响.应用该算法对某一简单电力系统在不同运行状态下的可靠性进行了评估,结果表明实时运行条件对系统可靠性水平有显著影响,所提算法能够如实反映系统实时运行的可靠性水平.

POWER SYSTEM OPERATING RELIABILITY EVALUATION BASED ON REAL-TIME OPERATING STATE

To evaluate the secure reliability level of power system under real-time operating state, the concept of operating reliability and its evaluation algorithm are proposed. In this algorithm the impact of such real-time operating conditions as power flow, busbar voltage and system frequency on failure probability of components are analyzed, the reliability model of components based on real-time operating conditions is built up and the impact of real-time operating conditions such as operation modes of generating sets, real-time variation of loads, variation of network topology etc., on fault analysis is considered, By use of the proposed algorithm the reliability evaluation of a certain simple power system under different operating states is conducted. The results show that real-time operating conditions greatly impact the reliability level of power system, and the proposed algorithm can truthfully reflect the reliability level of power system in real-time operation state.