计及电价波动的电网建设项目经济评估区间法

电网近期规划将产生一系列的电网建设项目.竞争市场环境给这些资金密集型项目的经济评估工作带来的不确定性使不确定性经济评估成为当前研究的热点.作者提出一种基于区间的能计及电价波动的电网建设项目经济评估方法.首先建立了区间现金流和区间利率的评估模型,以对现金流的不确定性进行建模处理.然后基于该模型推导了计及电价波动的区间净现值的评估方法,给出了项目风险的计算方法.最后通过案例研究了电价波动对项目评估的影响.在案例分析中给出了项目区间现金流的柔性调整原则和方法,以及电价波动率的确定方法.案例研究表明,本文的方法能较好地处理评估中诸如电价波动等的不确定性,且能评估项目的风险,是一种行之有效的适合电网建设项目的柔性经济评估方法.

AN INTERVAL ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHOD FOR PROJECTS OF POWER SYSTEM PLANNING CONSIDERING ELECTRICITY PRICE FLUCTUATION

Power system planning will result in a serial of construction projects in the near future. Market competitive environments have brought more uncertainties to the economic evaluation on these capital-intensive projects, thus researchers put more emphasis on this work. This paper proposes an interval-based economic evaluation method that can consider the electricity price fluctuation. First, the model of interval cash flow and interval rate is set up to deal with the uncertainty of cash flow. Then, on the base of established model, the interval net present value (INPV) method considering the fluctuation is derived; and a method to measure the risk of project is also put up. Finally, a case is given to study the effects of the electricity price fluctuation on the project evaluation. In the result analysis, a couple of flexible adjusting principles for interval cash flow and methods to calculate the fluctuation parameter of electricity price are provided. Case study suggests that the presented method is an efficient and flexible evaluation tool suitable for electric construction projects, which can handle uncertainties like electricity price fluctuation, as well as estimate the risk likely to be undertaken.