基于日前风功率预测的风电消纳能力评估方法

准确掌握电力系统消纳风电的能力,有助于风电场建设规划,更可辅助实际运行的调度决策.风电消纳能力的评估应分析全时段、计及多因素、考虑日前风电出力预测、探寻风电“可消纳包络带”.提出了一种基于日前风功率预测的风电消纳能力评估方法,首先以日前预测所得风电为基本信息,优化常规机组的启停状态;然后基于此决策,探寻系统次日全时段可消纳风电的上下限,并基于二次规划模型生成极端风电出力作为判据样本,分析系统次日消纳风电的能力,进而为运行人员提供决策辅助.

Evaluation on Capability of Wind Power Accommodation Based on Its Day-ahead Forecasting

Accurately mastering the capability of wind power accommodation(CWPA) is conducive to construction planning of wind plants and provide auxiliary to dispatching decision in actual operation.The assessment on CWPA should include following items:whole-period analysis,taking multi factors into account,considering day-ahead wind power forecasting and seeking an envelope of wind power accommodation.An assessment method on CWPA based on power wind forecasting is proposed.Firstly,utilizing day-ahead wind power forecasting as basic information,the commitment of traditional units is optimized;then based on above-mentioned decision the upper and lower limit of wind power that can be accommodated in whole-period the next day are sought and the extreme output of wind power is generated by quadratic programming model and chosen as the benchmark to evaluate the CWPA in the next day,and then to provide decision auxiliary for operation personnel.