大规模发输电系统充裕度评估的蒙特卡罗仿真

针对模拟法在大规模发输电系统充裕度评估中计算量十分巨大这一难题，本文提出了基于序贯蒙特卡罗仿真的充裕度评估模型。模型中采用分层模型和合并相同状态技术显著减少了计算量，从而使充裕度评估达到了实用化水平。依据本文算法编制了相应的软件，并利用该软件对IEEE-RTS系统和总元件数达324个的实际大规模发输电合成系统进行了计算，计算结果表明，该方法正确有效，计算结果合理并具有实际应用参考价值。

MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION TO ADEQUACY EVALUATION FOR LARGE-SCALE POWER GENERATION AND TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

To alleviate the huge calculated amount caused by using traditional analytic approach to evaluate the adequacy for large scale power generation and transmission system, an adequacy evaluation algorithm based on sequential Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed in which the calculated amount is considerably reduced by using hierarchical model and the technique of merging identical states, so the proposed algorithm makes the adequacy evaluation practical. Corresponding software is programmed according to the proposed algorithm. The calculations both to IEEE-RTS test system and practical large scale power generation and transmission system in which up to 324 elements are equipped are carried out. The analysis and comparison of the results from calculated examples show that the proposed method is correct and effective and can be applied to practice.