| 南京市夏季气温--日峰荷特性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李扬,王治华,卢毅,李军红,张长沪.南京市夏季气温--日峰荷特性分析[J].电网技术,2001,25(7):63-66,71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李扬 王治华 卢毅 李军红 张长沪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东南大学电气工程系
2. 南京供电局 |
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| 摘 要： | 气候变化对负荷的影响在逐年增大。同时也影响着电力系统负荷预测的精度。南京市夏季的季节性成分在一年中为最大，其中温度因子的影响是其构成的主要因素。通过对1996－1999年期间夏季典型日负荷曲线、夏季日峰荷与温度因子的相关性分析和对温度因子热积累效应的研究，为提高电力负荷的预测精度打下了基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 日峰荷 温度因子 多元回归 灵敏度 电力系统 负荷预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3673(2000)07-0063-04 |
CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF SUMMER AIR TEMPERATURE DAILY PEAK LOAD IN NANJING |
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| LI Yang ,WANG Zhi hua ,LU Yi ,LI Jun hong ,ZHANG Chang hu.CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF SUMMER AIR TEMPERATURE DAILY PEAK LOAD IN NANJING[J].Power System Technology,2001,25(7):63-66,71. |
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| Authors: | LI Yang WANG Zhi hua LU Yi LI Jun hong ZHANG Chang hu |
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| Affiliation: | LI Yang 1,WANG Zhi hua 1,LU Yi 1,LI Jun hong 2,ZHANG Chang hu 2 |
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| Abstract: | The power load in Nanjing is increasingly affected by the climate variation year by year. The precision of power load forecast is also affected. In Nanjing the maximum seasonal component of power load appears in summer and the influence of temperature factor is the main part of the component. Through the analysis of typical daily load curves in summer from 1996 to 1999, to find the correlation between daily peak load in summer and temperature factor, and the study on thermal cumulative effect of temperature factor, a multiple regression model for daily peak load in summer and temperature factor is obtained. Thus, a foundation for improving the precision of power load forecast is laid. |
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| Keywords: | daily peak load temperature factor multiple regression sensitivity |
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