基于故障树和模糊推理的电网连锁故障分析方法

提出了基于模糊推理和故障树理论的电力系统连锁故障分析方法。以故障树的图形化方式描述电力系统连锁故障发展的逻辑结构,可直观、清晰地考察连锁故障发展的逻辑并可方便地运用故障树分析法求取导致连锁故障的最小割集和连锁故障的发生概率。在根据预想故障进行电网连锁故障搜索时,采用模糊推理的方法判别在初始故障阶段及初始故障切除后系统潮流转移阶段继电保护装置的动作行为及连锁故障事件的发展模式。算例结果表明,该方法在连锁故障的逻辑结构表述及连锁故障发展模式的判别方面具有良好的应用前景。

A Method to Analyze Power System Cascading Failure Based on Fault Tree and Fuzzy Reasoning

A method to analyze power system cascading failure based on fuzzy reasoning and fault tree theory is proposed. The logical structure of cascading failure expansion is expressed by graphical pattern of fault tree, so the logic of cascading failure expansion can be clearly and easily observed, by use of fault tree analysis the occurrence probability of cascading failure and the minimum cut-set causing cascading failure can be solved. When cascading failure is searched according to anticipated fault, the fuzzy reasoning is used to respectively judge the behaviors of protective relays in initial fault stage and power flow transfer stage after the initial fault is cleared as well as the expansion mode of cascading failure. Results of calculation example show that the proposed method possesses good application prospect in the aspects of expressing cascading failure's logic structure and judging cascading failure's expansion mode.