| 基于集对分析理论的发电投资决策模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王绵斌,谭忠富,丁亚伟,李晓军.基于集对分析理论的发电投资决策模型[J].电网技术,2009(20). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王绵斌 谭忠富 丁亚伟 李晓军 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电网有限公司电网建设分公司;华北电力大学电力经济研究所;洛阳供电公司;南方电网国际有限责任公司; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(70571023); 教育部新世纪优秀人才计划项目(NCET-060208)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 在市场环境下,发电投资面临的诸多不确定因素将导致发电投资收益的不确定性,这需要发电投资决策评价方法来辅助发电商进行投资决策。为此首先分析了集对分析(set pair analysis,SPA)理论和发电投资的成本–效益问题;然后采用蒙特卡罗法对上网电价、煤炭价格和上网电量等不确定性因素进行模拟,得出发电投资的不确定性损失序列,并利用SPA对损失序列进行同、异、反特性描述,给出求解联系度系数的方法;在此基础上构建了基于SPA的发电投资决策模型,探讨了不确定数i的确定方法;最后通过算例证明了所构建模型的可行性,为发电商提供投资决策依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 集对分析(SPA) 成本–效益 联系度 蒙特卡罗法 发电投资决策 |
Power Generation Investment Decision-Making Model Based on Set Pair Analysis Theory |
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| WANG Mian-bin,TAN Zhong-fu,DING Ya-wei,LI Xiao-jun.Power Generation Investment Decision-Making Model Based on Set Pair Analysis Theory[J].Power System Technology,2009(20). |
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| Authors: | WANG Mian-bin TAN Zhong-fu DING Ya-wei LI Xiao-jun |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Mian-bin1,TAN Zhong-fu2,DING Ya-wei3,LI Xiao-jun4(1.Power Grid Construction Filiale,North China Grid Company Limited,Xicheng District,Beijing 100140,China,2.Institute of Electricity Economics,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,3.Luoyang Power Supply Company,Luoyang 471009,Henan Province,4.Southern Grid International Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510623,Guangdong Province,China) |
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| Abstract: | In market environment,power generation investment has to face with a lot of uncertain factors that lead to uncertainty of power generation investment income,thus it is necessary for power generation company to use generation investment decision-making evaluation.Firstly the set pair analysis theory(SPA) and cost-benefit problem of generation investment are analyzed;secondly,the fluctuation of uncertain factors such as bidding price,coal price and trading electricity quantity are simulated by Monte Carlo met... |
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| Keywords: | set pair analysis(SPA) cost-benefit relation degree Monte Carlo method generation investment decision-making |
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