人员紧急疏散系统动力学模型及其分析

在大型的体育赛事中,观众是一个非常复杂的能量系统,群体内人与人之间存在着相互影响、相互渗透的交互作用。针对能量的汇聚、冲突、平衡与失衡以及群体行为的趋向和拒斥等现象的研究,对系统问题进行分析,明确系统的界限,确定系统的各种变量,建立系统的因果关系图和流图,构建出系统模型。利用定性描述的方法,分析系统整体与局部的反馈关系,写出SD方程,并根据数据进行仿真试验和计算,最终得到一个与实际较为相符的预测结果。

Modelling and Analyzing Dynamic System of People Urgent Evacuation

In the large sports match,every audience is a very complex energy system,and there are interaction of effect and infiltration between the audience.The research in pool,conflict,balance and unbalance of the energy and phenomena of tendency and repulsion of behavior of people,by analyze the system question,and confirm the bound and variable of the system,and establish the causality chart and flow chart,and construct the system model,and analyze the feedback between the whole system and the part by qualitative method,and write out the SD equation,and test and calculate the date,and receive a prediction consistent with the fact at last.