评估项目风险中协调偏好的DEA方法

针对于综合考虑项目风险评估问题中影响风险因素的正向指标和逆向指标,在分析DEA有效解和多目标规划Pareto解等价性的基础上,建立了基于DEA的协调偏好的风险评估模型,优化协调了具有相反评价指标的项目风险评估问题。根据模型构造的生产可能集,结合两种相反评价指标对风险评估的影响,给出了风险包络面的概念,通过选取两组移动因子和具有熵权的模糊综合评价方法,逐层缩小风险包络面对决策单元进行评估排序,改进了移动风险曲面排序风险的方法,实现了风险决策单元的完全排序,使得评估结果在一定程度上兼具主观性与客观性。最后通过一个对软件项目进行风险评估的实际算例,表明了该方法的合理性和有效性。

A Coordinate Preference DEA Method of Project Risk Assessment

Considering both positive and negative factors that affect the risk of project risk assessment synthetically,the coordinate preference project risk assessment model based on DEA is established by analyzing the equivalence of DEA efficient solutions and Pareto solutions of multiobjective programming.The opposite evaluation of the project risk assessment is coordinated and optimizd.According to the production possibility set of the model,conception of risk envelope is provided by analyzing two opposing evaluation indicators of the risk assessment.By introducing two sets of shift factor and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight,the method of sorting risk by moving risk surface is improved.The sort of risk decision making units is completely achieved,and the assessment results have both subjectivity and objectivity to some extent.In the last section,the numerical example of software project is given to verify the feasibility and the validity of the result.