探索性分析方法及其关键技术

探索性分析方法是Rand公司在战略分析中总结得出的一种系统分析方法，它以层次化分析建模、模型抽象与聚合、主动元模型、仿真结果数据可视化等关键技术为支撑。探索性分析方法从系统所包含的不确定性因素出发，通过模型抽象和聚合建立系统层次化变分辨率低分辨率动态模型，调整不同的不确定性因素，通过对结果数据进行可视化交互式分析来观察和比较系统的行为变化，从而全面认识不确定性因素对结果的影响。探索性分析方法在深入研究特定的系统内部细节之前，通过对想定空间的快速大范围探索，能给出对问题的鲁棒、自适应和灵活的解，从而获得对系统的全面认识。

Exploratory Analysis Methodology and Its Technological Enablers

Exploratory analysis is a syetem analysis methodology summarized from Rand strategy analysis. It is based on the technologies such as hierarchical analysis model, model abstract and aggregation , motivated metamodels and simulation data visualization. Exploratory analysis emphasizes the uncertainty factors of system, constructs hierarchical, variable resolution, low-resolution dynamic system models by model abstract and aggregation technology, explores the uncertainty factors and their influence on the result . Exploratory analysis can help identify strategies that are flexible adaptive and robust by quickly exploring all possible scenario space before going into details for particular cases.