基于仿真的费用优化与风险分析软件系统

Arena仿真软件环境和Excel2000统计软件环境下，设计开发了一个针对特定随机型活动网络计划的进度／费用风险分析以及费用分析、均衡优化的集成化软件系统。该系统能实现特定随机型网络计划模型中各个活动时问和费用及其概率分布参数的输入和修改、仿真建模及运行、仿真结果动态可视化输出、网络计划的进度／费用仿真及其风险概率估计、代表性样本点的选择、网络计划各活动Weibull分布的参数估计、整个工期多峰Welbull分布的生成及投资强度分布的均衡优化，可埔于辅助武器装备系统研制项目及其他大型工程项目的风险分析与投资管理。

The Software System of Cost Optimization and Risk Analysis Based on Network Schedule Simulation Technique

Under the environment of simulation software Arena and statistics software Excel2000,an integrated software system is developed for schedule/cost risk analysis,expenses analysis and optimizing proportionally a specific random network schedule.This system can realize such functions as: inputting and modifying the time and expenses of each activity and the probability parameter of the specific random network schedule,simulation modeling and running,exporting simulation results visually,simulating the network schedule/cost and estimating the risk probability,choosing the representative samples,estimating Weibull distribution parameter for every activity of network schedule and forming the whole time limit for a project multi-peak and investment balanced optimization.This system can be used for risk analysis and management of investment in the auxiliary weaponry system development projects or other large-scale projects.