传染病传播模型研究

用数学模型帮助发现传染病的传播机理,预测传染病的流行趋势已成为共识.主要简述了传染病模型的发展历程.传染病的数学模型研究分为两类:决定性模型和网络动力学模型.虽然决定论模型目前仍然具有非常重要的学术地位,但随着人工智能计算机技术的发展,目前网络动力学模型成为了新的研究热点.决定性模型主要介绍了SIS和SIR模型,网络动力学模型主要介绍了目前流行病数学模型中研究较多、应用较广的模型,包括元胞自动机、人工神经网络、无尺度网络模型.介绍了各种模型的研究方法,并且探讨了今后的研究热点,以利用其模拟结果可以更好地为传染病防治决策提供支持.

Research of Epidemic Spread Model

Now mathematical model has become important methodology in forcasting the epidemic trend. This paper introduces briefly the model of epidemic. In this paper, the mathematics model of the infectious disease is divided into two kinds: Decisive model and network dynamics model. Although decisive model still has the extremely important academic status at present, network dynamics model has become the new research hot spot at present along with the artificial intelligence computer technology development. We mainly introduces decisive model including SIS and SIR model. The network dynamics model has been recommended studying more and using wider model in the mathematics model of epidemic disease at present, including Cellular Automata model, artificial neural network model, scale free network model. This paper introduces the research approaches of various kinds of models, and probes into the research focus in the future. Using the simulation results can provide the support of decision-making in epidemic preventing and control.