项目活动历时的概率分析与蒙特卡洛法

该文主要对在项目时间管理中如何更好地进行项目活动历时估算作分析和探讨，全文结合一个具体的项目实例，根据概率统计原理对项目历时估算的方法作了一些改进，最后用模拟法对项目的完成时间进行模拟计算。应用改进后的估算方法得到的模拟计算结果更符合项目的实际情况，有利于制定科学合理的项目进度计划，强化项目的时间管理。

Probabilistic Analysis and Monte Carlo method of Project Activity Duration

This paper makes an inquiry into project activity duration estimation on project management. Based on a project case and probabilistic theory, this paper reviews and revises the estimative method which is generally used and gives an estimative project duration by applying Monte Carlo method. Compared with the original method, the revised one has more practicality, it can be of benefit to develop scientific and reasonable project plan and improve project time management.