Efficient Monte Carlo simulation method of GERT-type network for project management

This paper proposes a new method to estimate network characteristics such as project time, project cost, etc. There are many kinds of projects such as new product development and plant construction. Since these projects consist of various uncertain jobs, we can model those processes as stochastic networks such as GERT network. Only simulation technique can analyze the networks’ characteristics of practical project model. However, the method is extremely time-consuming. Our method can estimate the network characteristics rapidly and accurately by analyzing one set of Monte Carlo simulation results based on the theory of probability.