|
|||||
|
|
| 基于混沌理论的交通量实时预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 董超俊,刘智勇,邱祖廉.基于混沌理论的交通量实时预测[J].信息与控制,2004,33(5):518-522. |
| 作者姓名： | 董超俊 刘智勇 邱祖廉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西安交通大学电子与信息工程学院,陕西,西安,710049;五邑大学信息学院,广东,江门,529020 2. 五邑大学信息学院,广东,江门,529020 3. 西安交通大学电子与信息工程学院,陕西,西安,710049 |
| 基金项目： | 广东省自然科学基金资助项目 ( 0 10 486) |
| 摘 要： | 分析了城市交通的混沌性，根据复杂的城市交通特点，引入了误差反馈系数，改进了混沌时间序列预测方法中的加权一阶局域法和基于最大Lyapunov指数的预测法，并将其成功应用于实时交通量预测．预测结果表明：这两种改进的方法都能较准确地预测交通量，但后者比前者更适合交通量预测，后者的预测误差一般可以控制在5％以下． |
| 关 键 词： | 混沌 交通量 混沌时间序列 误差反馈系数 实时预测 城市区域交通控制 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0411(2004)05-0518-05 |
Prediction of Traffic Flow in Real-time Based on Chaos Theory |
|
| DONG Chao-jun ,LIU Zhi-yong,QIU Zu-lian.Prediction of Traffic Flow in Real-time Based on Chaos Theory[J].Information and Control,2004,33(5):518-522. | |
| Authors: | DONG Chao-jun LIU Zhi-yong QIU Zu-lian |
| Affiliation: | DONG Chao-jun 1,2,LIU Zhi-yong2,QIU Zu-lian1 |
| Abstract: | The chaotic characteristics of urban traffic are analyzed, and the error feedback coefficient is introduced to improve one-rank local-region method of chaotic time series prediction methods and the forecasting method based upon the largest Lyapunov exponents. Both of the two improved methods are successfully used in real-time prediction of traffic flow. The results show that the two forecasting methods can be used in the prediction of traffic flow with considerably high accuracy, and the improved forecasting method based on the largest Lyapunov exponents is more suitable for forecasting traffic flow. |
| Keywords: | chaos traffic flow chaotic time series error feedback coefficient prediction in real-time urban area traffic control |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |