趋势比率模型在卷烟预测中的应用

中国烟草行业具有行政上的垄断性和生产上的计划性,有别于其它行业.做好卷烟销量的预测,是当前烟草行业工业生产环节与商业环节协同平滑进展的前提.鉴于此,提出基于趋势比率的卷烟预测模型,对该预测模型设计了相应的算法,最后以实际数据为例验证了趋势比率模型预测方法的有效性和实用性.

Application of Trend Rate Model in Cigarette Prediction

Chinese tobacco trade system is different from other trade system,it has the feature of administration monopoly and produce plan.Forecasting the tobacco Demands is the key for the industry and trade system's mutual benefit.In view of this,this paper presents prediction model of tobacco based on the statistical model,and designs a corresponding algorithm for the prediction model,finally using the actual dates to predict the effectiveness and practicality of the statistical model.