目标威胁评估的一种改进影响网络方法

目标威胁评估是在进行作战决策时需要解决的关键问题。针对传统影响网络只能描述二元状态事件的局限性,对其进行了扩展,建立了描述多元状态事件的改进影响网络模型,并推导了影响参数应满足的约束条件及条件概率的计算方法。以防空系统目标为例,在分析目标威胁属性的基础上,基于云模型进行属性值的定性与定量转化,并运用改进的影响网络方法进行目标威胁评估。最后给出仿真实验,实验结果验证了改进影响网络方法的有效性和可行性。

Improved Influence Network Approach to Target Threat Assessment

Target threat assessment is the key problem to be solved in the operational decision making.Aiming at the limitations of the traditional influence network only describing binary state of events,it was extended to describe N-nary state of events.Based on this,improved influence network model was established,and constraint conditions of effect parameters and conditional probability were derived.Taking the target of air defense system as an example,based on the analysis of the target threat attribute,the cloud model was used to make the qualitative and quantitative transformation of attribute value,and the target threat assessment was carried out by using the improved influence network method.Finally,the simulation example was given.The results verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the improved influence network method.