地震灾害潜在损失评价模型分析与研究——以唐山地震为例

地震灾害潜在损失评价模型的研究是综合应用遥感和地理信息系统技术,估算潜在地震灾区可能的最大损失量,以及潜在震区直接和间接的最大经济损失,为震区灾后的重建提供辅助决策支持信息。

Research about Potential Loss Assessment Models for Seismic Hazards:A Case Study in Tangshan Seismic

Research about potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard is the main part of the loss assessment decision support system about seismic hazard, including two following parts, that is database of the potential loss and loss assessment of the seismic. This database supports vector form special charts, sensor data in grid form, module data about digital topography and the statistic data in table form and also supports the switch between vector form and grid form. The property data of this database is stored in independent relational database table and maps its corresponding space unit. This research used the Tangshan city as application test area and synthesized many kinds of aviation and satellite sensor data ( 1976 through 1996), topography data, basic ground factors and statistic data about society economy, which are based on database to identify the factors of potential loss in the seismic hazard and to make sure the maximum probability of each factor, then to estimate the maximum possible loss. Potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard are based on the probability theory to identity the activity of seismic hazards and the possible relations between those seismic hazards. So the assay and assessment is made up mainly by following parts:(1) Identifying the potential calamity events; (2) identifying all kinds of potential factors of calamity events; (3) confirming the maximum probability of each factor; (4) estimating the loss of hazard. Making potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard, the procedure includes: (1) building the current status of this potential hazard and the algorithm for potential trend of this potential loss for the future; (2) ameliorating or adjusting the assessing algorithm of factors; (3) controlling the data quality in the process of calculating for mathematics models; (4) assessing data precision of the calculating result for data models. It is a significant technique method attempt to research the potential loss assessment models for seismic hazard by taking the seismic in Tangshan city as an example and synthesizing application sensor and ground information system in order to assess the maximum potential loss in the seismic area. Further research of model testing is ongoing.