基于遥感和GIS的中巴经济走廊多发展情景生态风险综合评价

中巴经济走廊沿线地区生态环境复杂、人地矛盾突出，走廊建设在推动区域经济发展的同时，也可能给区域生态环境安全带来潜在风险。借助遥感、地理信息和情景模拟方法，从风险源危险性、生态环境脆弱性、受体损失度三方面构建风险评价模型，结合惯性发展、投资优先和和谐发展三种情景下2030年土地利用情况，对廊道2015~2030年生态风险的时空变化规律进行分析。结果表明：中巴经济走廊高生态风险区主要分布在巴基斯坦北部山区向印度河平原的过渡区。未来情景的差异直接影响着生态风险。投资优先情景高风险区增幅最大，相比于2015年，2030年中度、高度和极高风险区面积占比分别增加了4.75%、4.84%和2.25%。惯性发展情景中度、高度和极高风险区面积占比分别增加了2.79%、2.52%和1.04%。和谐发展情景中，中度和高度风险区呈现增加趋势，极高风险区面积略微下降，增幅分别为1.15%、2.19%和-0.16%。研究表明：能兼顾经济发展和环境保护的和谐发展情景，是未来廊道规划建设的优化选择，合理规划土地利用，提高土地用途管制力度，提升土地资源使用效益，可促进社会经济可持续发展。基于遥感和GIS技术的综合评价方法能够为经济廊道的生态风险评价提供技术支撑。

Comprehensive Assessment of Ecological Risk in Multi-scenarios of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor based on RS and GIS

The eco-environment along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC） is complex， and the contradictions between the population growth and land resources is prominent. Although the construction of the CPEC has promoted regional economic development， it has inevitably affected the regional ecological environment. Based on remote sensing， geographic information and scenario simulation methods， a risk assessment model from three aspects including risk source danger， ecological environment vulnerability and receiver loss degree， was constructed. Moreover， combining the land use simulation of 2030 under Baseline Development （BD） scenario， Investment Priority Oriented （IPO） scenario， and the Harmonious Development （HD） scenario， the temporal and spatial variation of ecological risk in the CPEC from 2015 to 2030 were also analyzed. The results showed that the area with higher ecological risk is mainly distributed in the transition zone from North Highlands to the Indus Plain. Our results also indicated that the setting of the scenario directly affects ecological risk. Among them， the high-risk area in IPO scenario had the largest increase. Compared with 2015， the proportion of medium， high and extremely high-risk areas increased by 4.75%， 4.84% and 2.25%， respectively in 2030. In the BD scenario， the proportion of medium， high and extremely high-risk areas increased by 2.79%， 2.56% and 1.04%， respectively. Meanwhile， moderate and high-risk areas of HD scenario showed an increasing trend， and the extremely high-risk areas decreased slightly， with increases of 1.15%， 2.19% and -0.16%， respectively. This study suggested that considering economic development and environmental protection at the same time is the optimal choice for future planning and construction. The comprehensive evaluation method based on remote sensing and GIS technology can provide technical support for ecological risk evaluation of economic corridors.