| 基于多元线性自回归模型的流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 党小超,阎林.基于多元线性自回归模型的流量预测[J].计算机工程,2012,38(1):84-86,89. |
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| 作者姓名： | 党小超 阎林 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西北师范大学网络教育学院,兰州,730070
2. 西北师范大学数学与信息科学学院,兰州,730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 甘肃省科技支撑计划基金资助项目“电子政务中的网络行为监控预警管理系统”（090GKCA075） |
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| 摘 要： | 为使流量预测模型具有自适应性和相关性，以时间点为基础进行建模，结合时间序列与流量序列，引入多元线性自回归(AR)思想进行参数估算，对多次估算所得参数值建立指数加权移动平均数模型进行二次估算，在此基础上，建立多元线性自回归模型。实验结果证明，与AR模型、ARMA模型相比，基于多元线性AR模型的预测结果更准确。
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| 关 键 词： | 网络流量 时间序列 预测模型 线性回归 自回归模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-08-15 |
Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Multivariate Linear AR Model |
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| DANG Xiao-chao
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YAN Lin.Traffic Flow Prediction Based on Multivariate Linear AR Model[J].Computer Engineering,2012,38(1):84-86,89. |
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| Authors: | DANG Xiao-chao YAN Lin |
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| Affiliation: | b(a.College of Network Education;b.College of Mathematics ＆ Information Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | The network traffic has the features of relevance and nonstationarity.In order to make the traffic flow prediction model have the features of adaptability and correlation,this paper puts forward a new method by time point to create the model,and the time series combined with flow series.And it involves multivariate linear regression to evaluate arguments,uses the EWMA to process arguments and establishes the multivariate linear AR model.Experimental results show that compared with the AR model and ARMA model,the multivariate linear auto regression model is more accurate. |
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| Keywords: | network flow time series prediction model linear regression AR model |
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