| 基于路段行程时间的公交到站预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈巳康,詹成初,陈良贵. 基于路段行程时间的公交到站预测方法[J]. 计算机工程, 2007, 33(21): 281-282 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈巳康 詹成初 陈良贵 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海市城市交通管理局,上海,200003
2. 上海复旦光华信息科技股份有限公司,上海,200433 |
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| 摘 要： | 对公交到站时间预报技术进行了研究和探索。建立公交线网道路模型，根据GPS车载终端采集的公交车辆运行动态数据，推测路段交通状况及对应的路段行程时间，预测公交到站时间，并分析各种误差。实验数据表明，在2min误差内的预测时间准确率大于80%，基本可满足公交时间预报要求。
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| 关 键 词： | 路段行程时间 公交到站预报 GPS车载终端 公交线网道路模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3428（2007）21-0281-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-08-16 |
Prediction Method of Bus Arrival Time Based on Link Travel Time |
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| CHEN Si-kang,ZHAN Cheng-chu,CHEN Liang-gui. Prediction Method of Bus Arrival Time Based on Link Travel Time[J]. Computer Engineering, 2007, 33(21): 281-282 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Si-kang ZHAN Cheng-chu CHEN Liang-gui |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Shanghai Municipal Transportation Administrative Bureau, Shanghai 200003; 2. Shanghai Fudan Grand Horizon Information Technology Inc., Shanghai 200433 |
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| Abstract: | This paper studies the prediction technology of bus arrival time.After building the model of public transport network,the road traffic situation and corresponding traveling time are speculated according to dynamic data collected by GPS vehicle terminals,and then the bus arrival time is predicted.Different kinds of errors are analyzed.The accuracy of this method is more than 80% within the range of two minutes error permission,which can generally meet the requirement of prediction for bus arrival time. |
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| Keywords: | link travel time prediction of bus arrival GPS vehicle terminals model of public transport network road |
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