小样本跳变水质时序数据预测方法

根据三峡库区某些断面水质监测数据具有样本小、成库前后数据出现跳变的特点，提出一种适用于三峡库区的水质参数预测模型（ELS-SVM）。ELS-SVM通过建立数据预处理模型对原始小样本时序数据进行处理，增强了时序数据的平稳性，并使用模拟退火（SA）算法优选最小二乘支持向量机（LS-SVM）模型参数。与典型的小样本预测模型的比较实验表明，ELS-SVM模型更适用于三峡库区小样本水质时序数据的预测。

Forecasting method for water quality time series of few and abnormal data

According to the characteristics of small samples and sudden change of some sections in Three Gorges,the ELS-SVM water quality prediction model for Three Gorges was proposed,which consisted of Equal Level Pretreatment Model(ELPM) and Least Squares Support Vector Machines(LS-SVM).ELPM was brought forward to preprocess raw time series data to enhance the smoothness,and Simulated Annealing(SA) algorithm was used for choosing the optimal parameters of LS-SVM.The experimental results indicate that,compared to th...