考虑风险传导情形的订单接受决策方法

制造商收到产品订单申请后通常需要综合考虑订单收益和交货违约风险进而作出是否接受订单的决策.现实中交货违约风险可能沿供应链向下游传导,如何在考虑风险传导情形的基础上估计订单交货违约风险进而作出正确的订单接收决策,这是一个需要关注的研究课题.对此,提出一种考虑风险传导情形的订单接受决策方法.首先,依据供应链自身的构成和特点,针对导致订单产品交货违约的两种情况,即订单产品质量不达标和订单产品交货延迟,构建涉及多级供应商的描述订单产品交货违约事件的故障树;其次,依据故障树分析的原理计算订单产品交货违约的概率;再次,通过计算制造商接受订单的预期收益,作出是否接受订单的决策;最后,通过一个算例表明所提出方法的可行性及潜在应用.

Decision making method for order acceptance considering risk propagation

The manufacturer usually needs to evaluate the earnings and the product delivery default risk to decide whether to accept the product order after receiving the product order. In reality, the product delivery default risk may propagate downstream along the supply chain. However, how to evaluate the product delivery default risk considering the risk propagation so as to make the correct order acceptance decision is a research topic that needs to be concerned. In this paper, a decision making method for order acceptance considering the risk propagation is proposed. Firstly, according to the structure and characteristics of the supply chain, the fault tree including multiple suppliers is constructed aiming to the two cases leading to the product delivery default, i.e., below-standard product quality and product on backorder. Then, the probabilities of basic events in the fault tree are estimated. Furthermore, the probability of the product delivery default event is calculated according to the principle of fault tree analysis(FTA). On this basis, the prospective earnings of accepting the order are calculated and the order acceptance decision is made. According to the assessment result, the manufacturer can decide whether to accept the product order. Finally, a practical example is used to illustrate the feasibility and potential application of the proposed method.