关于上海市人口合理规模的多目标预测研究

根据上海市的具体情况,在分析大量翔实数据的基础上,运用系统工程中的可能-满意度方法,对上海市人口规模进行了多目标预测,得到2050年上海市的合理人口规模及其所依赖的条件,并对其中的关键影响因素进行了灵敏度分析.本文认为,把绿化、用水和住房分别在生态环境、资源和社会生活中赋以较大权重,将限制上海市的合理人口规模,其可能一满意度也将有所下降,因此应加强对这些因素的重视程度,这将有利于加快上海市总体发展的步伐.

Research on multi-object forecasting of the reasonable population scope in Shanghai city

According to the conditions of Shanghai, this study forecasts the population scope of Shanghai using the possibility-satisfaction degree method of system engineering. The reasonable population scope in the year 2050 is given and the conditions that the scope relies on are pointed out as well. The sensitivity analysis is carried out for key influence factors: It is concluded that if more weights are assigned to virescence, water, and houses in ecological environment, resources, and social life, then this leads to constraining the reasonable population scope and to reducing the possibility-satisfaction degree. So, attention to these factors should be emphasized in order to mend the development pace of Shanghai.