具有随机变量形式属性值的突发事件应急方案选择方法*

突发事件应急响应面临多个可能状态的应急方案选择问题,是一个值得探讨且具有实际价值的研究课题。本文针对具有随机变量形式属性值的突发事件应急方案选择问题,给出一种应急方案选择方法。首先,针对属性值为随机变量形式的各个属性,构建在各状态下针对每个属性的占优矩阵；其次,构建针对各属性的优势度矩阵,并将其规范化得到规范化优势度矩阵；然后,针对属性值为数值型的各个属性,构建针对各属性的规范化决策矩阵；进一步地,将规范化优势度矩阵和规范化决策矩阵进行集结,构建综合决策矩阵,在此基础上计算出各备选应急方案的综合评价值,并依据综合评价值的大小来确定突发事件应急响应的应急方案；最后,通过一个算例说明了提出方法的可用性。

A Method for Selecting Emergency Alternatives Considering Multiple Attributes with Random Variables

Selecting emergency alternatives for emergency response with multiple states is worthy of being discussed in-depth and is a topic with practical application value. In this paper, a method for selecting emergency alternatives is proposed for the alternatives selection with attribute values in the form of random variable. First, for the attributes with attribute values in the form of random variable, the dominant matrix is constructed for each attribute in each state. Secondly, superiority degree matrix for each attribute is constructed, and normalized superiority degree matrices can be obtained. Then, for the attributes with numerical values, normalized decision matrix for each attributes is constructed. Further, comprehensive decision matrix is constructed by aggregating normalized superiority degree matrices and normalized decision matrices, and comprehensive evaluation value of each alternative is calculated, and the optimal alternative for the present emergency problem can be determined according to the ranking result of comprehensive evaluation values. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed method.