Simulating wildfires backwards in time from the final fire perimeter in point-functional fire models |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal;2. Centro de Investigação e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Biológicas, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Quinta de Prados, Apartado 1013, 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal;3. Instituto Dom Luís, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande Edifício C8, Piso 3, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal;4. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), IAFES Division, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy;5. Universidad de Murcia, Departmento de Física, Campus de Espinardo, 30100 Murcia, Spain;6. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA |
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| Abstract: | Fire propagation models simulate wildfires forward in time from a set of ignition locations, but are usually unable to be used backwards if only a final fire perimeter is available. This approach is useful to search fire ignition points, reconstruct past fire events, adjust fire simulators and other purposes. This study proposes three different algorithms: a short time range backwards in time simulation from the perimeter, a statistical analysis related to the likelihood of a fire ignition location over the domain, and an analysis aiming to multiple ignition locations. The methods presented are fast to be solved and may be used with any empirical fire propagation model as a core engine as long as the ROS is locally defined and the model is not coupled to the weather. |
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| Keywords: | Empirical fire models Backwards in time Ignition locations Wildland fire Fire modeling |
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