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Automatic detection of parsimony for heteroskedastic time series processes
Authors:R Östermark
Affiliation:?bo Akademi University, Department of Business Administration, Henriksgatan 7, FIN-20500 ?BO, Finland E-mail: ralf.ostermark@abo.fi, FI
Abstract: The paper proposes a new multiple-representation geno-mathematical algorithm for coping with ill-conditioned time series processes through competing nonlinear model formulations. Extensive testing and comparisons to a rigorous statistical time series package indicate that the geno-mathematical search-machine is effective and robust for modelling complicated time series. The new algorithm is used to model a representative set of global asset returns. The diagnostic tests prove that the ARCH-effects of the difficult nonlinear processes are annihilated completely in both full and reduced model variants.
Keywords:  Automatic model detection  Genetic computation  Heteroskedastic time series  Multiple competing representations
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