网络蠕虫感染率的抗差估计法

网络蠕虫对信息安全构成了威胁，检测和防范蠕虫成为网络安全的研究课题。本文提出了一种网络蠕虫感染率的估法模型，然后根据权函数和残差区间给出了抗差等价权矩阵，分析了误差影响及验后精度估计，最后进行了仿真实验。实验结果表明，这种方法具有良好的抗粗差能力，可靠靠且收敛速度快。

Robust Estimation of the Internet Worm Infection Rate

The Internet worm is a menace for the security of the Internet users. To detect and defense the Internet worm becomes an important research topic in the field of Internet security. A robust estimation method for evaluating the worm infection rate is proposed in this paper. The robust estimator of the worm infection rate is derived based on the robust maximum likelihood estimation principle at firsL The corresponding elements of the equivalent weight matrix constructed by the residuals and some chosen weight functions are given. The error influence functions related to the robust estimation and the least squares estimation are respectively analyzed. The posterior covarianee matrix and the variance scale are presented. Finally,a simulated example is performed. It is shown that the robust estimation is effective and reliable in resisting the bad influence of the outlying scan data on the estimated worm infection rate with a high comoutation convergence speed.