航天发射系统运行安全性评估研究进展与挑战

航天发射作为人类太空活动最为基础和最为重要的环节之一，是评判一个国家综合国力的重要指标，而航天发射系统运行安全性评估作为现代航天发射控制指挥与决策系统的核心，是保证航天发射安全运行的基础.首先，本文概述了现代航天发射系统，简要回顾了系统安全性研究发展历程，阐述了航天发射系统运行安全性评估的内涵.其次，通过综述航天发射系统运行故障检测与诊断、异常运行工况识别、运行过程安全分析与预测、安全性动态评估技术等方面的研究现状的基础上，总结出了航天发射系统运行安全性评估面临着系统极度复杂、决策风险性极大、先验信息少以及评估结果要求高准确性与实时性等方面的挑战.最后，本文对航天发射系统运行安全性评估有待研究的基础前沿问题进行了思考.

Research on Operational Safety Assessment for Spacecraft Launch System: Progress and Challenges

The spacecraft launch system is not only one of the most basic and the most important parts in human space activities but also an important indicator for judging a country's overall national strength. The operational safety assessment of the spacecraft launch system can be considered as the core of modern spacecraft launch control command and decision system. It is the basis for ensuring the safe operation of spacecraft launches. The modern spacecraft launch system is outlined and the development of system safety research is briefly reviewed. The connotation of the operational safety assessment of the spacecraft launch system is explained. Secondly, it focuses on the research progress of operational fault detection and diagnosis, abnormal operational condition identification, operational processes safety analysis and prediction, safety dynamic evaluation technology. Additionally, the challenges on the operational safety assessment of spacecraft launch system are discussed, including extremely complexity in practical system, great risk in decision-marking, little prior information, high accuracy and real-time evaluation results. Finally, the basic and systemic issues of the future research for the operational safety assessment of spacecraft launch system are pondered.