生产率悖论与中美两国信息技术投资效果比较

信息技术的生产率悖论问题已经讨论了几十年，过去这个领域的研究主要限制在美国，但是信息技术生产率悖论在其它国家和地区的适用性如何仍然是有争议的。本研究的重点在于用事件分析法研究发达国家和发展中国家信息技术投资效果的不同。以中国作为发展中国家的代表，美国作为发达国家的代表，对上个世纪90年代后期的IT投资的影响进行了对比。结果发现，中国企业的IT投资对企业的市场价值产生了巨大的影响，但在美国企业的研究中并未发现此现象。这表明在不同发展水平的国家中，IT扮演了不同的角色，从而说明生产率悖论不是一个全球化的问题。该发现与Baumol的不平衡经济增长理论相吻合，此理论亦可作为生产率悖论的一个可信的解释。

"Productivity Paradox" and the Comparison of Impact of IT Investments in U.S. and China

Although the productivity paradox has been in the debate for decades, past research in this field has been restricted to the United States, and the external validity of the paradox is questionable. In this study,we use event study method to compare the impact of IT investments announcements in a typical developing country China and in a representative developed country the United States in the late 1990s. It is found that IT investment has delivered significant impact on firms' market value in China, but not in the U.S.This finding may indicate that IT plays different roles in the countries with different level of development, and that the productivity paradox is not a global phenomenon. Our finding is consistent with Baumol's "Unbalanced Economic Growth" theory, which may be a plausible explanation for the productivity paradox.