| Abstract: | Suppose a complex mechanism, e.g., a missile, is built up from a number of different types of components, where the reliability of each of the components has been estimated by means of separate tests on each of the components. This paper gives a method for combining such data to determine approximate confidence limits for the reliability of the complete mechanism. More precisely, a method of determining approximate confidence limits for the reliability of “series,” “parallel,” and “seriesparallel” systems is given, based on observed failures of the individual components. It is assumed that the failures are independent, and that failures of a given component follow a binomial distribution with unknown parameter, the component reliability. The large-sample properties of the likelihood-ratio test are then used to construct the appropriate confidence limits for the system reliability. |
