结合区间理论熵权和TOPSIS的映前总票房区间预测

为解决电影票房预测中，票房影响因素存在模糊性的问题，提出用区间数量化具有模糊性的票房影响因素，使得量化科学合理，量化结果能提高信息利用率；利用熵权法计算各影响因素权重，保证权重客观性；对票房进行分级并基于票房分级，将票房影响因素作为票房评价指标，提出用理想解法计算票房理想解贴近度区间，根据票房理想解贴近度判断票房级别，得到票房区间预测值；结合区间理论、熵权法和理想解法得到上映前总票房区间预测方法。选取2015~2017年上映的剧情类和动作类电影对该方法进行了验证。该方法在两类用于验证的电影中的平均准确率分别为79.33%和73.92%，证明本文方法具有一定的有效性和实用性。本文对于电影发行商的决策以及风险规避具有一定的意义，且对于与电影类似的短生命周期体验品的早期需求预测具有一定的参考价值。

An Interval Prediction Method for Box Office Before Released Based on Interval Theory,Entropy Weight,and TOPSIS

In order to address ambiguity of influence factors in box office prediction, interval number is used to quantify the factors, because interval number is of high utilization of information, scientific and reasonable. In order to ensure objectivity, entropy method is applied to determine weights of each factor. TOPSIS method is used to calculate box office ideal solution nearness degree interval by treating box office influence factors as box office evaluation indicators, and by dividing box office into different categories based on classification of box office. The box office level is determined based on the box office ideal solution nearness degree, and then the interval prediction value of box office is obtained. Combining interval theory, entropy weight method, and TOPSIS method, an interval prediction method for box office before released is obtained. Some action and drama movies released between 2015-2017 are used to verify the proposed method. Average accuracy of the method is 79.33% and 73.92% respectively for action and drama movies, suggesting that the method is effective and practical. The method is valuable for film distributors' decision-making and risk aversion, and has certain reference value for early demand forecast of short life-cycle experience products similar to movies.