石油勘探开发可持续发展SD模型的建立与应用

分析了油田在石油勘探开发中内在信息反馈结构与机制以及相互因果关系，运用系统动力学理论和方法，绘出了其系统动力学流图，用Dynamo语言建立了能在计算机上运行的，人-机对话式的经济模型，并分析主要模拟结构，辅助油田科学地制定并选择长远的策略规划。通过研究表明，系统动力学可以应用石油勘探开发这样复杂系统中，并为之提供定量的可持续发展预测分析，达到辅助油田科学决策的目的。

Construction and Application of the Sustainable Development SD Model for the Oil''s Exploration and Exploitation

This paper analyses the oil field's internal information feed back structure and mechanism,and cause and effect relations in exploring and exploiting the oil resource. According to the principle and methods of the system dynamics,it draws the SD flow diagrams,then establishes an interactive computer based economics model with DYNAMO computer language. Having analyzed the main running results of SD model, the auxiliary information could be offered to the oil field enterprise to make and select its long term strategies and plans. The results of the researches show that the system dynamics principle and method is useful in the complex system such as the oil field enterprise to explore and exploit the oil, and provides the sustainable development quantitative analysis to assist the oil field enterprise to make scientific decisions.