改革开放以来境内外汇市场发展质量:历程、成效与展望

基于人民币汇率制度演变和改革开放以来境内外汇市场发展历程,研究提出外汇市场高质量发展的核心内涵是服务实体经济高质量发展并构建高水平的金融基础设施,其实践逻辑应坚持基于实需原则的汇率市场化改革,并与人民币国际化和资本项目开放相互促进、协调发展。研究初步构建了基于汇率制度、市场效率、市场开放、市场公平、市场风险和市场多样性六个维度的外汇市场质量评估体系,研究发现境内外汇市场发展水平与人民币汇率市场化程度、人民币国际化水平和我国资本项目可兑换现状基本相称,但较英美等成熟外汇市场还存在较大差距。研究建议从深化汇率制度改革、丰富市场主体类型、发展场内外汇交易、深化资本项目开放、提升风险应对能力等方面稳步推动境内外汇市场高质量发展。

High-quality Development of China Foreign Exchange Market since the Reform:Retrospect,Achievements and Prospects

This research reviews the evolution of the RMB exchange rate and domestic foreign exchange market development.It proposes the core connotation of high-quality development for domestic foreign exchange market is to serve the real economy and construct a highly developed financial infrastructure.Practically,the High-quality development of China FX Market should coordinate with the marketization of exchange rate reform,the RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization.This article preliminary constructs an evaluation system from six aspects including exchange arrangement,market efficiency,market openness,market fairness,market risk,and market diversity.It illustrates the quality of domestic FX market development is commensurate with the marketization of exchange rate,RMB internationalization,and capital account liberalization.However,domestic market is far behind the mature markets such as UK and US.The research suggests to reform the exchange arrangement,enrich the types of market players,develop floor trading,deepen the opening up of capital accounts,and improve the ability to deal with risks,in order to steadily promote the high-quality development of the domestic foreign exchange market.