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Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms
Authors:Kuan-Yu Chen  
Institution:aDepartment of Business Administration, Far East College, 49 Chung Hua RD, Hsin-Shih, Tainan 744, Taiwan
Abstract:This study applies a novel neural-network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecast reliability in engine systems. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in systems reliability prediction by comparing it with the existing neural-network approaches and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. To build an effective SVR model, SVR's parameters must be set carefully. This study proposes a novel approach, known as GA-SVR, which searches for SVR's optimal parameters using real-value genetic algorithms, and then adopts the optimal parameters to construct the SVR models. A real reliability data for 40 suits of turbochargers were employed as the data set. The experimental results demonstrate that SVR outperforms the existing neural-network approaches and the traditional ARIMA models based on the normalized root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.
Keywords:Support vector regression  Neural networks  Genetic algorithms  ARIMA
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