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中国工程科技2035技术预见研究
引用本文:王崑声,周晓纪,龚旭.中国工程科技2035技术预见研究[J].中国工程科学,2017,19(1):34-42.
作者姓名:王崑声  周晓纪  龚旭
作者单位:中国航天系统科学与工程研究院;中国航天系统科学与工程研究院;国家自然科学基金委员会
基金项目:中国工程院咨询项目“中国工程科技2035发展战略研究”(2015-ZD-14)
摘    要:技术预见是一种致力于促进科技与经济、重大计划一体化,对远期技术发展进行的有步骤的探索过程。结合我国未来经济社会发展对工程科技的需求,在工程科技发展战略研究中引入技术预见,开展未来20年工程科技关键技术预测与选择。中国工程科技2035技术预见结合工程科技特点,设计了客观分析法与主观判断相结合的技术预见方法与应用流程,针对11个工程科技领域的800余项备选技术,提出了2035年我国工程科技各领域发展的关键技术、共性技术以及颠覆性技术,分析了关键技术的实现时间、发展水平与制约因素,为各领域制定面向2035工程科技发展技术路线图提供系统性的支撑。

关 键 词:技术预见  工程科技  2035年  关键技术选择  实现时间
收稿时间:2016/12/10 0:00:00
修稿时间:2017/1/5 0:00:00

Technology Foresight of 2035 Engineering Science and Technology in China
Wang Kunsheng,Zhou Xiaoji and Gong Xu.Technology Foresight of 2035 Engineering Science and Technology in China[J].Engineering Science,2017,19(1):34-42.
Authors:Wang Kunsheng  Zhou Xiaoji and Gong Xu
Affiliation:China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering;China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering;National Natural Science Foundation of China
Abstract:Technology foresight is a process to promote the integration of technology, economy and major planning projects, and explore the development of future technology. With the consideration of the future economic and social development needs of our country, the aim of technology foresight for the development strategy research of Engineering Science and Technology is to predict and select the key technologies about Engineering Science and Technology in the next 20 years. Combining objective analysis and subjective judgment, technology foresight of 2035 engineering science and technology in China designs the methods and procedures applied in the project by considering the characteristics of engineering science and technology. In this technology foresight, from more than 800 technologies of 11 fields, key technologies, common technologies and disruptive technologies are selected, and the technical realization time, development level and constraints are analyzed. The results of the foresight are adopted for the roadmap research on engineering science and technology development to 2035 in China.
Keywords:technology foresight  engineering science and technology  2035  key technology selection  realization time
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