| 中国长征系列运载火箭的可靠性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 周源泉,杨双进,顿赛英.中国长征系列运载火箭的可靠性分析[J].导弹与航天运载技术,2002(2):37-40. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 周源泉 杨双进 顿赛英 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 北京强度环境研究所,北京,100076
2. 中国运载火箭技术研究院质量技术部,北京,100076 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 可靠性增长分析指出，长征系列运载火箭的可靠性出现了马鞍形，其经验教训值得认真记取，由于采取了一系列重大的可靠性改进措施，自1996年10月起，长征系列运载火箭连续23次发射成功，用Bayes方法评定可得，长征系列运载火箭可靠性的Bayes估计为0．958，置信水平为0．90时，可靠性的Bayes下限为0．930。
|
| 关 键 词： | 长征运载火箭 可靠性增长 幂律模型 可靠性评定 Bayes方法 中国 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年4月20日 |
Reliability Analysis for China Long March Family of Launch Vehicle |
| |
| Zhou Yuanquan.Reliability Analysis for China Long March Family of Launch Vehicle[J].Missiles and Space Vehicles,2002(2):37-40. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhou Yuanquan |
| |
| Abstract: | RG analysis shows that there is a falling off in the reliability of LM. The positive and negative experiences must be memorised seriously.As a result of adopting a series of important reliability improvement measures, 23 consecutive successful launches are performed.Using the Bayesian method, we get the following results: the estimated current reliability is 0.958 and the lower Bayesian limit on the current reliability is 0.930, when confidence level is 0.90. |
| |
| Keywords: | Long March launch vehicle Reliability growth Power law model Reliability assessment Bayesian method |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
