| 基于非齐次Poisson过程的多阶段可靠性增长Bayes评估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张云安,明志茂,陶俊勇,陈循.基于非齐次Poisson过程的多阶段可靠性增长Bayes评估研究[J].弹箭与制导学报,2009,29(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张云安 明志茂 陶俊勇 陈循 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国防科技大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙,410073
2. 国防科技大学机电工程与自动化学院,长沙,410073;马里兰大学机械工程系可靠性与风险性研究中心,美国马里兰州,20742 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家部委重点预研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对航空航天领域试验费用昂贵、试验数据少的问题,研究了多阶段可靠性增长Bayes分析方法.采用非齐次Poisson过程(NHPP)建立可靠性增长模型;利用Bayes方法融合专家信息,并根据可靠性增长的特点采用Gamma-Beta分布作为NHPP参数的先验分布,通过阶段间可靠性增长信息传递的方法,实现多阶段的可靠性增长评估.最后通过一个发动机的例子表明该方法和模型能够充分利用多阶段的专家经验和试验数据,适合小子样场合的可靠性增长评估.
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| 关 键 词： | 可靠性增长 Bayes方法 非齐次Poisson过程 Gamma-Beta分布 发动机 |
Research on Bayesian Assessment of Reliability Growth Test during Multi-stage Development Base on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process |
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| ZHANG Yunan,MING Zhimao,TAO Junyong,CHEN Xun.Research on Bayesian Assessment of Reliability Growth Test during Multi-stage Development Base on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process[J].Journal of Projectiles Rockets Missiles and Guidance,2009,29(4). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yunan MING Zhimao TAO Junyong CHEN Xun |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Yunan1,MING Zhimao1,TAO Junyong1,2,CHEN Xun1(1 College of Mechatronic Engineering , Automation,NUDT,Changsha 410073,China,2 Center for Risk , Reliability,Department of Mechanical Engineering,University of Maryl,,MD 20742,USA) |
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| Abstract: | A Bayesian approach for multi-stage reliability growth test was proposed aiming at the test process which was high cost and small sample-size in aerospace filed.The reliability growth process was modeled by the non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP),and a Gamma-Beta prior was proposed for the parameter of NHPP corresponding to the reliability growth process.The model was suitable for multi-stage reliability growth test assessment by the transfer rule for reliability growth's information.The analysis result o... |
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| Keywords: | reliability growth Bayesian approach non-homogeneous Poisson process Gamma-Beta distribution motor |
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