基于蒙特卡洛法的空投鱼雷搜捕概率分析

针对空投鱼雷实际使用情况，分析空投鱼雷散布规律和鱼雷主动声自导原理。构建空投鱼雷的投雷误差 模型、潜艇定位误差模型、搜捕弹道模型和自导检测模型；采用蒙特卡洛法对空投鱼雷投雷和搜捕过程进行仿真， 分析不同投雷高度、速度、投雷点方位、潜艇定位误差对鱼雷搜捕概率的影响。仿真结果表明，该分析可为作战决 策提供理论依据。

Search Probability Analysis of Air-dropped Torpedo Based on Monte Carlo Method

Based on the actual application of air-dropped torpedo, the dispersion law of air-dropped torpedo and the active acoustic homing principle of torpedo are analyzed. The torpedo dropping error model, the submarine positioning error model, the hunting trajectory model and the homing detection model were established. The process of torpedo dropping and hunting was simulated by Monte Carlo method, and the effects of different torpedo dropping heights, velocities, mine dropping positions and submarine positioning errors on torpedo hunting probability were analyzed. The simulation results show that the analysis can provide a theoretical basis for operational decision-making.