无验前信息的成败型弹药产品可靠性评估

为有效评估成败型弹药的可靠性，介绍成败型部件可靠性经典评估方法和Bayes 评估方法。针对无验前 信息的弹药成败型部件可靠性评估问题，提出采用3 种常用共轭先验来求其可靠性下限，并通过数值仿真分析，得 到常用共轭先验分布对可靠度置信下限的影响规律以及每种共轭先验分布的适用情况。结果表明：3 种共轭先验分 布评估得到的结果较为合适，可为提高弹药可靠性评估的准确性提供支持。

Reliability Evaluation for Success-or-failure Pattern Ammunition Products Without Priori Information Distribution

In order to effectively evaluate the reliability of ammunition, the classical method and Bayes method of reliability evaluation assessment of success or failure components are introduced. The 3 conjugate prior used for find the lower confidence limit of reliability is proposed for reliability evaluation of ammunition components with no-prior information. And the influence of commonly used conjugate prior distribution on the lower confidence limit of reliability and the application of each conjugate prior distribution are obtained by numerical simulation analysis. The results show that the 3 conjugate prior distributions is more appropriate and can provide support for improving the accuracy of the reliability evaluation ammunition.