基于事件序列图法的装备故障风险分析

利用事件序列图建立装备故障风险模型的基本方法是:将故障事件作为引发事件,并通过相关问答开发环节事件,直至到达终态.同时,采用条件、逻辑门、参数、限制、规则等要素建立事件间的交互作用和时序关系,描述出故障事件发生并导致影响的可能发展过程.模型中,任何1个自引发事件开始至不期望终态结束的事件序列即构成1个事故链.将事故链及其发生概率、损失构成1个三元组,用以描述该事故链的风险.

Equipment Failure Risk Analysis Based on Event Sequence Diagram

The equipment failure risk models could be developed by means of Event Sequence Diagram(ESD).An ESD model began with a failure event as the initiating event,and ended with an end state.Between initiating event and end states were pivotal events which were developed by asking and answering the question.The events were integrated by the ESD components,such as conditions,gates,process parameter set,constraints,rules and so on,which defined the interacting,ordering and timing relations of the events and described the possible progress of the failure triggering effect along different paths.According to ESD model,an accident scenario wais identified as the chain of events which originated from initiating event and led to undesired end state.As a result of that,the accident scenario risk is evaluated by a three-triple(accident scenario,likelihood of the scenario,and consequence of the scenario).