基于仿真的某型号车辆底盘可信性评估

对某型号车辆底盘，在子系统服从任意失效和修复分布、失效数据不充分和可靠性试验小样本的情况下，采用Bayes与Monte- Carlo方法评估复杂可修系统的可信性（可靠性和维修性）。根据“先来先修”的队列原则，利用优先级和事件表建立了复杂可修系统的可信性仿真的逻辑关系，根据对运行特征的识别，得到复杂系统可信性的统计值，为可靠性设计和维修性管理提供依据。

Dependability Evaluation of a Vehicle System by Simulation Method

The vehicle system studied in this paper belongs to such a type of complex repairable systems whose subsystems follow various failure distributions and conform to arbitrary failure and repair distributions.Failure data of the subsystems are sometimes not sufficient,reliability test sample sizes tend to be small.Monte-Carlo technique combined with Bayes method was used to evaluate its dependability(reliability and maintainability).Following the queuing rule,"first-in,first-out" the logic relationship of dependability was established by means of repair priority and event lists.Simulation outputs the entire history of a mission,statistics of reliability and maintainability parameters and provides the basic data for system reliability design and maintainability management.