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贝叶斯网络在火エ系统安全评价中的应用
引用本文:郑恒,吴祈宗,汪佩兰,史爱芬.贝叶斯网络在火エ系统安全评价中的应用[J].兵工学报,2006,27(6):988-993.
作者姓名:郑恒  吴祈宗  汪佩兰  史爱芬
作者单位:1.北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081; 2.北京理工大学机电工程学院,北京100081 3.中国兵器工业系统总体部,北京100089
摘    要:提出一种基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的火工系统安全评价方法,采用BN取代原有的故障树分析法( FTA)有两个方面的优势:一是在建模方面,突破了故障树分析的一些较强的假设,可以考虑多态变量以及变量之间的相关性,并能以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系;二是在分析方面,既能进行前向的预测推理,又能进行后向的诊断推理,并可以找出导致系统故障的组合模式,从而能够方便地找出系统的薄弱环节。采用基于MATLAB的Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT)较件包,大大简化了计算过程。通过一个工业雷管生产线的安全评价实例,说明该方法是对传统的基于故障树分析的安全评价方法的有益改进。

关 键 词:贝叶斯网络      故障树分析      火工系统      安全评价      安全系统工程  
文章编号:1000-1093(2006)06-0988-06
收稿时间:2005-11-10
修稿时间:2005-11-10

Application of Bayesian Networks to Safety Assessment in Pyrotechnics Systems
ZHENG Heng,WU Qi-zong,WANG Pei-lan,SHI Ai-fen.Application of Bayesian Networks to Safety Assessment in Pyrotechnics Systems[J].Acta Armamentarii,2006,27(6):988-993.
Authors:ZHENG Heng  WU Qi-zong  WANG Pei-lan  SHI Ai-fen
Affiliation:I. School of Management and Economics, Beijmg Institute of Technology, Beying 100081,China; 2. School of Mechatronic Engineering, Beijmg Institute of Technology, Beijmg 100081, China; 3.System Engineering Institute, China North Industries Group, Beijing 100089, China
Abstract:A Bayesian network(BN) approach for safety assessment in pyrotechnics production systems was presented.Bayesian networks have two advantages in contrast with the fault tree analysis(FTA).Firstly,in the modeling process,BN breaks through some hypotheses in FTA so as to do some important things that cannot be done in FTA,including taking the multi-state variables into account,considering the correlation among the variables,and representing the uncertainty relations(among) the variables in better form than that of logic gate.Secondly, in the analyzing process,BN can perform the forward inference(prediction) as well as backward inference(diagnosis).It can also find out the most probable mode causing the system failure.Adopting the Bayes Net Toolbox(BNT) software based on Matlab,the modeling and analyzing process is greatly facilitated.Finally,an example on industrial detonator production line illustrates that the BN approach is a good substitute for FTA for safety assessment in pyrotechnics production systems.
Keywords:Bayesian networks  fault tree analysis  pyrotechnics system  safety assessment  safetysystem engineering
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