非恒定环境下基于载荷谱的导弹部件寿命预测

为了解决某导弹部件在非恒定贮存环境下的寿命预测问题,提出了一种基于环境载荷谱的预测方法。分别利用Normal、Gamma分布对温度、湿度载荷谱建模;采用三参数Weibull分布拟合产品的失效时间,进而通过加速因子不变原则推导与环境相关的模型参数,在此基础上利用简化的广义Eyring模型建立时变环境与寿命模型之间的联系。案例应用验证了所提方法的有效性,结果表明此方法比传统的基于环境平均值的预测方法降低了预测误差。

Load Spectra-based Lifetime Prediction for Missile Components under Varying Environment

A forecasting method based on the environmental load spectra is proposed for predicting the lifetime of missile components under time-varying storage environment. Normal and Gamma distributions are used to model the load spectra for collected temperature and humidity data, respectively. A three-parameter Weibull distribution is utilized to fit the time of failure, then the parameters, which are dependent on environment, are determined using acceleration factor constant principle. Furthermore, a simplified generalized Eyring model is used to establish the relationship between the time-varying environment and the reliability model. A case study is provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method can be used to reduce the prediction error compared with the traditional prediction method that takes the average environment as varying environment.