火工品发火点估计方法比较研究

100p%发火点估计是火工品可靠性设计、鉴定和评估的重要基础,长期以来发展了升降法、Langlie法、Wu方法、Neyer方法和随机逼近方法等。本研究针对正态和Logistic感度分布,应用蒙特卡洛方法,系统全面地比较了这些方法。综合发火点估计的波动性和偏差,给出各个方法的适用范围;p=0.5时,建议使用优化随机逼近方法;p=0.99～0.999时,建议使用Neyer方法。

Comparative Study on Estimating Method of Firing Level of Pyrotechnics

Estimation of 100p% firing level is very important in reliability design, qualification and evaluation for pyrotechnics. A number of methods which include the up and down method, the Langlie method, the Wu method,the Neyer method and the optimal stochastic approximation method have been developed for a long time. These methods were compared under the normal and logistic sensitivity distribution by using Monte Carlo technique. The appropriate application range for each method was given by considering deviations. The optimal stochastic approximation method is suggested for p=0.5 and the Neyer method is suggested for p=0.99-0.999.