美军兵力规划过程中场景方法的应用及其面临的问题与挑战

梳理了美军兵力规划的一般流程,介绍了场景方法在兵力规划过程中的应用情况;基于美军兵力规划的具体实践,总结了场景开发与分析对战略环境变化响应的及时性与适应性方面存在的两大突出问题,并详细阐述了场景方法应用中存在的八个具体挑战,包括场景选取标准、前提假设选择、多场景综合集成、场景分析与评估等;在此基础上,给出了一部分具体建议。本研究不仅可对兵力规划方法以及场景设计与分析提供针对性的信息参考,还可对作战研究过程中涉及的场景构建问题提供一定的启发。

The Application of Scenario Method and Its Problems and Challenges in the Process of U.S. Military Force Planning

The general process of US military force planning is analyzed, and the application of scenario method in the process of force planning is introduced. Based on the practices of the force planning, two prominent problems for the scenario development and analysis—response timeliness and adaptability to strategic environment changes—are summarized, and eight specific challenges that exist in the scenario method are expounded, including the scene selection standard, choice of premises, multiple-scenes integration, scene analysis and assessment, etc. On this basis, some concrete suggestions are given. The research can not only provide specific information reference for force planning method and scene design and analysis, but also provide some enlightenment for the scene construction issues involved in the process of operational research.